Volume 2024, Issue 4 e10283
Editor's choice and Research article

Understanding the complex dynamics of zebra mussel invasions over several decades in European rivers: drivers, impacts and predictions

Phillip J. Haubrock

Phillip J. Haubrock

Department of River Ecology and Conservation, Senckenberg Research Institute and Natural History Museum Frankfurt, Gelnhausen, Germany

Faculty of Fisheries and Protection of Waters, South Bohemian Research Center of Aquaculture and Biodiversity of Hydrocenoses, University of South Bohemia in České Budějovice, Zátiší, Vodňany, Czech Republic

Department of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Center for Applied Mathematics and Bioinformatics, Gulf University for Science and Technology, Hawally, Kuwait

Contribution: Conceptualization (equal), Formal analysis (equal), Supervision (equal), Writing - original draft (equal), Writing - review & editing (equal)

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Ismael Soto

Ismael Soto

Faculty of Fisheries and Protection of Waters, South Bohemian Research Center of Aquaculture and Biodiversity of Hydrocenoses, University of South Bohemia in České Budějovice, Zátiší, Vodňany, Czech Republic

Contribution: Data curation (equal), Formal analysis (equal), Methodology (equal), Writing - original draft (equal)

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Melina Kourantidou

Melina Kourantidou

Université de Bretagne Occidentale, UMR 6308 AMURE, IUEM, Plouzané, France

Department of Sociology, Environmental and Business Economics, University of Southern Denmark, Esbjerg, Denmark

Contribution: Validation (equal), Writing - original draft (equal), Writing - review & editing (equal)

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Danish A. Ahmed

Danish A. Ahmed

Department of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Center for Applied Mathematics and Bioinformatics, Gulf University for Science and Technology, Hawally, Kuwait

Contribution: Conceptualization (equal), Formal analysis (equal), Writing - original draft (equal), Writing - review & editing (equal)

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Ali Serhan Tarkan

Ali Serhan Tarkan

Department of Ecology and Vertebrate Zoology, Faculty of Biology and Environmental Protection, University of Lodz, Lodz, Poland

Contribution: Supervision (equal), Validation (equal), Visualization (equal), Writing - original draft (equal), Writing - review & editing (equal)

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Paride Balzani

Paride Balzani

Faculty of Fisheries and Protection of Waters, South Bohemian Research Center of Aquaculture and Biodiversity of Hydrocenoses, University of South Bohemia in České Budějovice, Zátiší, Vodňany, Czech Republic

Contribution: Supervision (equal), Writing - original draft (equal), Writing - review & editing (equal)

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Kristi Bego

Kristi Bego

Senckenberg Geselleschaft fur Naturforschung (SNG) Senckenberganlage, Frankfurt, Germany

Contribution: Data curation (equal), Formal analysis (equal), Writing - original draft (equal)

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Antonín Kouba

Antonín Kouba

Faculty of Fisheries and Protection of Waters, South Bohemian Research Center of Aquaculture and Biodiversity of Hydrocenoses, University of South Bohemia in České Budějovice, Zátiší, Vodňany, Czech Republic

Contribution: Visualization (equal), Writing - review & editing (equal)

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Sadi Aksu

Sadi Aksu

Vocational School of Health Services, Eskişehir Osmangazi University, Eskişehir, Turkey

Contribution: Data curation (equal), Formal analysis (equal), Writing - original draft (equal)

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Elizabeta Briski

Elizabeta Briski

GEOMAR Helmholtz-Zentrum für Ozeanforschung Kiel, Kiel, Germany

Contribution: Conceptualization (equal), Visualization (equal), Writing - review & editing (equal)

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Francisco Sylvester

Francisco Sylvester

Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científcas y Técnicas (CONICET), Salta, Argentina

Contribution: Visualization (equal), Writing - original draft (equal), Writing - review & editing (equal)

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Vanessa De Santis

Vanessa De Santis

Water Research Institute of the National Research Council of Italy (IRSA-CNR), Largo Tonolli, Verbania-Pallanza, Italy

Contribution: Supervision (equal), Writing - review & editing (equal)

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Gaït Archambaud-Suard

Gaït Archambaud-Suard

INRAE, Aix Marseille Univ, RECOVER, Aix-en-Provence, France

Contribution: Data curation (equal), Writing - review & editing (equal)

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Núria Bonada

Núria Bonada

Departament de Biologia Evolutiva, FEHM-Lab (Freshwater Ecology, Hydrology and Management), Ecologia i Ciències Ambientals, Facultat de Biologia, Institut de Recerca de la Biodiversitat (IRBio), Universitat de Barcelona (UB), Barcelona, Spain

Contribution: Supervision (equal), Validation (equal), Writing - original draft (equal)

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Miguel Cañedo-Argüelles

Miguel Cañedo-Argüelles

FEHM-Lab (Freshwater Ecology, Hydrology and Management), Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research (IDAEA), CSIC, Barcelona, Spain

Contribution: Formal analysis (equal), Visualization (equal), Writing - review & editing (equal)

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Zoltán Csabai

Zoltán Csabai

Department of Hydrobiology, University of Pécs, Pécs, Hungary

Balaton Limnological Research Institute, Tihany, Hungary

Contribution: Data curation (equal), Writing - review & editing (equal)

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Thibault Datry

Thibault Datry

INRAE, UR RiverLy, Centre de Lyon-Villeurbanne, Villeurbanne, France

Contribution: Writing - review & editing (equal)

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Mathieu Floury

Mathieu Floury

University of Lyon, Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1, CNRS, ENTPE, UMR 5023 LEHNA, Villeurbanne, France

Contribution: Writing - review & editing (equal)

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Jean-François Fruget

Jean-François Fruget

ARALEP, Ecologie des Eaux Douces, Campus LyonTech-La Doua, Villeurbanne, France

Contribution: Writing - review & editing (equal)

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John Iwan Jones

John Iwan Jones

School of Biological and Behavioural Sciences, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK

Contribution: Writing - review & editing (equal)

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Marie-Helene Lizee

Marie-Helene Lizee

INRAE, Aix Marseille Univ, RECOVER, Aix-en-Provence, France

Contribution: Writing - review & editing (equal)

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Anthony Maire

Anthony Maire

EDF R and D, Laboratoire National d'Hydraulique et Environnement (LNHE), Chatou, France

Contribution: Formal analysis (equal), Writing - review & editing (equal)

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John F. Murphy

John F. Murphy

School of Biological and Behavioural Sciences, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK

Contribution: Writing - review & editing (equal)

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Davis Ozolins

Davis Ozolins

Institute of Biology, University of Latvia, Riga, Latvia

Contribution: Writing - review & editing (equal)

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Jes Jessen Rasmussen

Jes Jessen Rasmussen

Norwegian Institute for Water Research (NIVA Denmark), Copenhagen, Denmark

Contribution: Supervision (equal), Writing - review & editing (equal)

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Agnija Skuja

Agnija Skuja

Institute of Biology, University of Latvia, Riga, Latvia

Contribution: Writing - review & editing (equal)

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Gábor Várbíró

Gábor Várbíró

Department of Tisza River Research, Centre for Ecological Research, Institute of Aquatic Ecology, Debrecen, Hungary

Contribution: Writing - review & editing (equal)

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Piet Verdonschot

Piet Verdonschot

Wageningen Environmental Research, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, Netherlands

Contribution: Writing - review & editing (equal)

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Ralf C. M. Verdonschot

Ralf C. M. Verdonschot

Wageningen Environmental Research, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, Netherlands

Contribution: Writing - review & editing (equal)

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Peter Wiberg-Larsen

Peter Wiberg-Larsen

Department of Ecoscience, Aarhus University, Silkeborg, Denmark

Contribution: Supervision (equal), Writing - review & editing (equal)

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Ross N. Cuthbert

Ross N. Cuthbert

Institute for Global Food Security, School of Biological Sciences, Queen's University Belfast, Belfast, UK

Contribution: Supervision (equal), Validation (equal), Writing - original draft (equal), Writing - review & editing (equal)

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First published: 22 January 2024
Citations: 1

This study presents a novel and comprehensive analysis of the complex dynamics underlying the invasion of zebra mussels across European waterways over several decades. By utilising a large dataset from various biomonitoring programs, the research uniquely identifies and evaluates the spatial-temporal trends, drivers of success, and ecological impacts of Dreissena polymorpha invasions. Through meta-regression modeling and ecological niche modeling, the work forecasts future invasion scenarios under changing climate conditions, offering critical insights into managing and mitigating the effects of one of Europe’s most impactful invasive species.

Abstract

The zebra mussel Dreissena polymorpha is one of the most successful, notorious, and detrimental aquatic invasive non-native species worldwide, having invaded Europe and North America while causing substantial ecological and socio-economic impacts. Here, we investigated the spatiotemporal trends in this species' invasion success using 178 macroinvertebrate abundance time series, containing 1451 records of D. polymorpha collected across nine European countries between 1972–2019. Using these raw (absolute) abundance data, we examined trends and drivers of occurrences and relative abundances of D. polymorpha within invaded communities. Meta-regression models revealed non-significant trends both at the European level and for the majority of the invaded countries, except for France (significant decreasing trend) and Hungary (marginally positive trend). At the European level, the number of D. polymorpha occurrences over time followed a flat-top bell-shaped distribution, with a steep increase between 1973–1989 followed by a plateau phase prior to significantly declining post-1998. Using a series of climatic and hydromorphological site-specific characteristics of invaded and uninvaded sites from two periods (1998–2002; 2011–2015), we found that native richness, non-native abundance, distance to the next barrier, and elevation were associated with the occurrence of D. polymorpha. We also found that higher native richness and lower latitude were related to lower relative abundances. Using Cohen's D as a measure of D. polymorpha impact, we found that biodiversity within the invaded sites was initially higher than in uninvaded ones, but then declined, suggesting differences in biodiversity trends across invaded and uninvaded sites. While our results emphasise the high invasion success of D. polymorpha, increasing stressors within the context of global change – particularly ongoing climate change – are likely to enhance invasion rates and the impact of D. polymorpha in the near future, exacerbated by the lack of timely and effective management actions.

Data availability statement

The data and R code can be found at Github: https://github.com/IsmaSA/Dreissena-polymorpha (Haubrock et al. 2023).